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Health care costs for Arizonans expected to rise as ACA subsidies expire

Dec. 12, 2025

Dr. Derksen interviewed: Dueling measures fail as enhanced tax credits expire Dec. 31, more than 400,000 Arizonans affected

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Derksen KOLD

TUCSON, Ariz. (13 News) - The Senate on Thursday failed to pass dueling measures to address ACA tax credits, leaving subsidies that would lower costs for millions of Americans set to expire at the end of this year.

In Arizona alone, more than 400,000 people get health insurance under the Affordable Care Act. With days left before Congress breaks for the holiday, thousands of Arizonans could see their premiums double or even triple in price.

Trista Lashley, an employee at Arizona Pool & Pond, has been paying $4.34 a month for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act since last October. But when her January statement arrived, she said she was caught off guard.

“Just about a week ago I received an email that they were going to have to switch me to a new plan and all of the sudden they said I was going to owe $857 a month to continue having insurance,” Lashley said.

Lashley is one of 423,000 Arizonans enrolled under the ACA, which provides coverage to millions of low to middle income Americans without private or employer-sponsored insurance. Enhanced tax credits make it affordable for people like Lashley to afford that plan.

Without congressional action by next week, those credits will expire by December 31st.

“What we’re going to see in Arizona is a doubling to a tripling of what people have to absorb in out-of-pocket costs because they no longer qualify for these advanced premium tax credits,” said Dr. Dan Derksen, family physician and director for the Center of Rural Health at University of Arizona.

If that happens, roughly 150,000 Arizonans would be priced out of their plans, according to Derksen, an expert on health care policy. He said without extending ACA subsidies, many more people will be forced to go uninsured and become more reliant on local health care providers to offer uncompensated or charity care.

“You don’t really save costs by throwing people off of coverage, you just shift who absorbs those costs,” Derksen said.

Derksen expects rural hospitals and clinics to face that heavier burden, saying patient coverage sources largely keep them open. While the clock is ticking for Congress to do something, people like Lashley are faced with an impossible choice.

“I mean almost $900 a month, I pay $1,000 in rent every month, so that’s almost the cost of my monthly expenses just to live in a home,” Lashley said. “I can’t justify spending $900 a month through the marketplace plans so I’m going to have to look elsewhere.”

A decision leaving her uninsured going into the new year.

House Republicans are reportedly considering different healthcare proposals to bring to the floor next week, but without the ACA subsidies, healthcare costs would still skyrocket at least in the short term.